There is a protocol built on Ethereum called Numerai. They explain it in more detail on their website but in essence it is a way for anyone to build and then bet on algorithms to predict the stock market. Users submit predictions based on obfuscated data provided Numerai and then can "stake" their predictions. When a user has a positive correlation with the real world they make money, otherwise they lose money.
As of this writing, about 900 people have submitted predictions
that made them 10% ROI on their original investment over 3 months. There is currently ~$10M
staked on these predictions on 2,500 models.
I used Jupyter Notebooks on Google Colab to do some exploratory analysis on the features of profitable users. The notebook includes my source code and commentary. It pings their GraphQL API to cast the entire leaderboard into Pandas DataFrame. I then run some OLS Regression and create some charts on the relationships between how much a person bets on their model (stake size) and how profitable they are. Surprising there a significant, but very small, difference between betting $40 and $40,000. People who bet more tend to do better in the long run but the difference is very small.
Check out my code in this notebook here!
I took some screenshots of the histograms I created using matplotlib and included them below.
